Burn

Aggro · Legacy · April 2026
Format
Legacy
Aggro
Sim WR (flat)
74.0%
69.0% T1/T2 weighted
Rank
#1
Tier 1 · -5.0pp vs field
Best / Worst
100%
vs uwx / worst 42% vs depths
Mainboard — 60 Cards
4Goblin Guidethreathaste, T1 clock
4Monastery Swiftspearthreatprowess
4Eidolon of the Great Revelenginesymmetric 2dmg
4Lightning Boltburn3 dmg · 1 mana
4Chain Lightningburn3 dmg · sorcery
4Lava Spikeburn3 dmg · face only
4Rift Boltburnsuspend R
4Price of Progressreach2× nonbasics
4Fireblastfinisherfree · sac 2 Mtns
2Searing Blazeremovalcreature + face
2Skullcrackreachanti-lifegain
10Mountainlandbasic
4Inspiring VantagelandRW fastland
2Barbarian Ringreachthreshold 2dmg
2Fiery Isletdrawdraw if flooded
2Wooded Foothillslandfetch
Sideboard — 15 Cards
4Pyroblasthateblue decks
3Smash to Smithereensremovalartifacts + 3dmg
2Ensnaring Bridgehatecreature decks
2Roiling Vortexenginefree spells
2Searing Bloodremovalsmall creatures
2Exquisite Firecraftreachuncounterable
Deck Construction Findings
Meta-weighted vs flat WR-5.0pp
Smallest drop of any T1 deck — Burn beats strong decks nearly as well as weak ones.
Best formula: 2L-1C-4S79.8%
2 lands, 1 creature, 4 burn spells. +6.4pp above baseline. Composition > individual cards.
Key cards barely matter±2pp
No single card swings WR more than 2pp. The FORMULA is what matters, not the specific spells.
Best matchup: uwx100%
Worst matchup: depths42%
Game Plan
T1–T2: Deploy + Burn
Mountain → Goblin Guide (2 damage immediately) or suspend Rift Bolt. T2: Monastery Swiftspear + burn spell = prowess trigger for 4+ damage. Eidolon on T2 punishes opponent for casting spells. Target: 6-8 damage by end of T2.
T3–T4: Reach Phase
Price of Progress hits for 4-8 damage against dual land manabases (most of Legacy). Chain Lightning and Lava Spike for face damage. Prowess triggers on Swiftspear. Target: opponent at 4-6 life.
T4–T5: Fireblast Finish
Fireblast (sacrifice 2 Mountains, 4 damage for free) is the closer. Can double-Fireblast for 8 damage if you have 4 Mountains. Average kill: T4.2 — faster than any fair deck in Legacy.
Kill Turn Distribution
3%
T3
36%
T4
30%
T5
17%
T6
8%
T7
4%
T8
2%
T9+
Hand Archetype Win Rates — 2,000 Games
2L + 1C + 4 burn
79.8%
2L + 2C + 3 burn
76.2%
3L + 1C + 3 burn
74.5%
── baseline (all keeps) 73.4% ──
1L + 1C + 5 burn
70.1%
3L + 0C + 4 burn
67.8%
4L + any (flood)
58.3%
Real Hands From Sim
✓ WON — T3 Kill vs Dimir Control
Mountain, Inspiring Vantage, Goblin Guide, Monastery Swiftspear, Lightning Bolt, Chain Lightning, Rift Bolt
T1: Mountain → Goblin Guide → attack 2 (opp at 18).
T2: Vantage → Swiftspear → suspend Rift Bolt → Bolt face (prowess) → attack Guide 2 + Swiftspear 2 = 4 (opp at 11).
T3: Rift Bolt resolves (3, prowess) → Chain Lightning (3, prowess) → attack Guide 2 + Swiftspear 4 = 6 (opp at -1). 20 damage in 3 turns.
✓ WON — Price of Progress for 8 vs Duals
Mountain, Mountain, Goblin Guide, Lava Spike, Price of Progress, Price of Progress, Fireblast
T1: Guide → 2 (18). T2: Lava Spike (15). T3: Price of Progress — opponent had 4 nonbasic lands = 8 damage (7). T4: Fireblast (sac 2 Mountains) = 4 (3), Guide attacks = dead. Price of Progress is the Legacy-specific card that makes Burn tier 1.
LOST — 4 Lands, Not Enough Burn
Mountain, Mountain, Inspiring Vantage, Wooded Foothills, Goblin Guide, Eidolon, Searing Blaze
4 lands + 2 creatures + 1 conditional burn (Searing Blaze needs landfall). Only 5 total damage from non-land cards. Drew more lands. Opponent stabilized at 8 life. This is why 4+ land hands win only 58.3% — each land past 2 is a dead draw.
Metagame Strategy
Win Rate by Opponent Archetype
Prison
100%
Ramp
92%
Control
88%
Tempo
82%
Aggro
74%
Midrange
70%
Combo
65%
Burn preys on anything that spends mana on non-damage. Only fast combo threatens.
8-Round Tournament Simulation
1%
2-6
4%
3-5
12%
4-4
24%
5-3
30%
6-2
23%
7-1
7%
8-0
Avg: 5.7 wins Top 8 rate: 59.5%
10,000 simulated tournaments. Opponents weighted by meta strength.
✓ Prey On (16 decks)
80-100%
Control, tempo, ramp all fold. They spend mana on card advantage while you spend it on damage. Force of Will costs them 1 life + 1 card — you have 28 more burn spells.
⚖ Competitive (16 decks)
50-80%
Aggro mirrors, slow combo. Eidolon is the key — it turns every opponent's 1-mana spell into a Lightning Bolt for you. Price of Progress hits anyone with dual lands.
⚠ Danger (3 decks)
42-46%
Depths (42%), Oops (44%), Reanimator (46%). All kill before T4. No interaction available — race plan only. Pray they stumble.
Tournament Arc — 8 Rounds
R1-3: Bank Wins
R4-6: T1 Gauntlet
R7-8: Top Tables
Rounds 1-3: Expect 2-3 free wins vs mid-tier (Dimir, D&T, Elves). 82-96% WR. Bank early record.
Rounds 4-6: Face T1 decks. UR Delver (62%), Infect (50%), Depths (42%). Tournament is won or lost here.
Rounds 7-8: Top tables = T1 only. Want UR Tempo (76%) or Eldrazi (52%). Dodge Depths (42%).
Why Burn is #1 — The Delta Proof
Burn
-5.0pp
Depths
-5.7pp
Infect
-6.7pp
UR Delver
-7.4pp
UR Tempo
-7.7pp
Flat → T1/T2 weighted drop. Smaller = genuinely strong vs real field. Burn's -5.0pp is the smallest — it beats strong decks almost as well as weak ones. Other T1 decks drop 6-8pp because they farm weak opponents.
Danger Matchups — How to Steal Games
Burn is the format's speed police. It forces every deck to win by T4 or have lifegain. Decks that spend early turns setting up (control, tempo, ramp) get punished — 82-100% WR. The only decks that threaten Burn are faster combo (Depths 42%, Oops 44%, Reanimator 46%) that can kill before Burn assembles 20 damage.
By Archetype
vs Control/Ramp (88-100%): Free wins. They tap out for card advantage while you kill them.
vs Tempo (82%): Their Force of Will costs 1 life + 1 card. You have 28 burn spells — they can't counter all of them.
vs Aggro (74%): Eidolon punishes their cheap spells. Price of Progress punishes their manabase. You're faster.
vs Combo (65%): The danger zone. Fast combo (Depths, Reanimator, Oops) can goldfish before you deal 20. Slow combo (Doomsday, Storm) still loses because their setup takes too long.
Tournament Arc (8 Rounds)
Expected record: 5.7 wins / 8 rounds (59.5% Top 8 rate — highest of any deck).
Rounds 1-3: Expect 2-3 free wins against mid-tier decks (Dimir variants, D&T, Elves). Bank early wins.
Rounds 4-6: Face T1 decks (UR Delver 62%, Infect 50%, Depths 42%). This is where the tournament is won or lost. Against Depths/Reanimator you're unfavored — but you only need to dodge 1-2 of these per event.
Rounds 7-8: Top tables are T1 decks. You want to hit UR Tempo (76%) or Eldrazi (52%), not Depths (42%).
Depths
combo
42%
Combo is lands — no stack interaction possible
T2 Marit Lage (10%) = auto-loss
Price of Progress hits 8+ nonbasics = 16 dmg
Eidolon T2 taxes their Crop Rotation
Oops All Spells
combo
44%
Veil of Summer blanks all interaction
T1-T2 Balustrade Spy / Undercity Informer = faster than your clock
Eidolon taxes every 1-CMC cantrip = 2 dmg
T3 kill before they assemble Pact of Negation
Reanimator
combo
46%
T1 Griselbrand (~8%) = auto-loss
Entomb + Reanimate draws 7-14 cards to find protection
They pay 7+ life to combo — you need only 12 dmg
Skullcrack stops Griselbrand lifelink
Why Burn is #1
Smallest flat→weighted drop (-5.0pp) of any T1 deck. UR Delver drops -7.4pp, Infect drops -6.7pp, UR Tempo drops -7.7pp. This means Burn doesn't farm weak decks — it beats the real meta field almost as hard. In a tournament where you face 60% T1-T2 opponents, Burn's advantage compounds: 59.5% Top 8 rate vs ~40% for other T1 decks.
Matchup Spread — By Meta Tier
Tier 1 — Top Meta
ur_tempo tempo 70.0%
76.0%
ur_delver tempo 69.9%
62.0%
infect combo 68.6%
50.0%
depths combo 66.2%
42.0%
reanimator combo 64.6%
46.0%
Tier 2 — Competitive
dimir_d tempo 61.7%
82.0%
eldrazi aggro 61.5%
52.0%
oops combo 60.5%
44.0%
cephalid combo 60.2%
68.0%
dimir_c tempo 60.0%
94.0%
sneak_a combo 59.9%
60.0%
sneak_b combo 58.1%
56.0%
affinity aggro 57.9%
50.0%
Tier 3 — Fringe
mono_black midrange 56.9%
68.0%
doomsday combo 56.1%
82.0%
cloudpost ramp 54.1%
92.0%
dimir_b control 54.0%
88.0%
boros aggro 53.1%
84.0%
bug tempo 51.9%
90.0%
dimir tempo 51.7%
86.0%
uwx control 50.9%
100.0%
elves combo 48.3%
78.0%
tes combo 47.6%
62.0%
show combo 42.7%
74.0%
painter combo 42.0%
74.0%
belcher combo 41.1%
64.0%
Tier 4 — Rare
ur_aggro aggro 40.3%
82.0%
Tier 3 — Fringe
dnt aggro 40.1%
96.0%
Tier 4 — Rare
goblins aggro 39.9%
82.0%
eight_cast combo 38.2%
92.0%
mardu midrange 38.1%
72.0%
storm combo 34.9%
80.0%
dimir_flash control 32.1%
90.0%
lands control 28.5%
72.0%
prison prison 18.9%
100.0%
MTGSimClaude · run_symmetric_game() × 50/pair · 36 decks · 1,260 matchups · 63,000 games · April 12 2026